China Faces Demographic Challenges Amidst Historic Population Decline

China has witnessed a significant decrease in its population, marking a concerning demographic trend with consecutive years of record-low birthrates. In 2023, China’s population fell by 2.75 million, a 0.2% drop, bringing the total to 1.409 billion, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. This decline exceeded the previous year’s reduction of around 850,000, marking the first population decrease since the famines during Mao’s era.

The year 2023 saw an increase in deaths by 6.6%, totaling 11.1 million, the highest death rate since 1974, the year of the cultural revolution’s turmoil. Simultaneously, births decreased by 5.7% to 9.02 million. The birthrate hit a historic low of 6.39 births per 1,000 people, down from 6.77 in 2022.

China’s demographic crisis, exacerbated by past population control policies such as the one-child policy and a reluctance among younger generations to have children, poses significant economic challenges. In 2023, India surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation, according to United Nations estimates.

Chinese officials are concerned about the economic implications of this “demographic timebomb.” The rising costs of aged care and financial support are at risk due to a dwindling workforce. The Chinese Academy of Sciences has projected that the current pension system will be depleted by 2035, by which time the number of people over 60 years old in China will have risen from 280 million to 400 million.

Efforts to incentivize larger families have been largely unsuccessful, hindered by inadequate implementation at the local government level and budgetary constraints following the zero-Covid policy. High living costs, particularly in major cities, lack of job support for women, and traditional gender roles are among the reasons cited for not having children.

He Dan, director of the China Population and Development Research Center, acknowledges that public expectations are not being met despite various child-bearing support policies. Demographers are calling for further reforms in fertility support policies.

Some speculate that there might be a surge in births in 2024, potentially due to the end of the pandemic or the Chinese zodiac year of the dragon, considered auspicious for childbirth. However, online discussions on platforms like Weibo reveal skepticism, with many expressing that policy changes or favorable zodiac years are unlikely to alter their decisions regarding having children.

This demographic shift in China underscores the need for strategic policy reforms and societal adjustments to address the long-term implications of an aging population and a shrinking workforce. The challenges ahead call for a nuanced understanding of the economic and social factors influencing family planning decisions in modern China.